Tuesday, July 19, 2011

11th Commandment

So Alex Tabarrok has a post today on suggestions for an 11th Commandment, seemingly suggesting that the 10 already proposed thousands of years back weren't enough.

Abstracting from warnings about adding to the words of the Bible, and the utter irony of the created man saying to his creator "I don't think you got this quite right", this is a great example of how I think most people view Christianity - something to pick and choose from, and amend if we don't like it.

I think most of all is the silliness of the proposed commandment - at what point is the sixth commandment (thou shalt not murder - especially taken in the context of Matthew 5:21-24) not sufficient to cover not spreading the Word of God by the sword?

It probably reveals another common misunderstanding or misperception of Christians, that they should all be following all these rules, and if they don't, they won't get into Heaven, and hence when they fail (like spreading the word by the sword) they are criticised as hypocrites. Christianity is about relationship with the Lord Jesus, about forgiveness of sins, not about becoming perfect and not sinning in the here and now.

 

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Straw Man Ahoy!

A little while back, I read (and blogged) about David Henderson's reflections on left vs right, or liberal vs libertarian discussion. Henderson commented that, on balance, libertarians were much better than liberals at characterising the position of the other side. He's since gone on to write a lot about turing tests, which appear to be attempts by people to argue the position of somebody ideologically opposed to them. On reflection, the best response to that is something involving the words "stones", "throw" and "glass houses".  Particularly because libertarians are up there with the worst of us liberals at creating straw men of the other side of the argument, and today on Cafe Hayek there's another priceless example: Aggregate Healthiness.

My suspicion is that the analogy isn't lost on anyone who has ever studied economics or reads up on economic issues. Aggregate Healthiness is Aggregate Demand, and Gross Bodily Health (GBH) is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Boudreaux is, of course, trying to mock his straw man Keynesian, who says: "Doesn't matter what government spends on, but government must spend if GDP falls - gotta keep AD up!"

Now, maybe that's the simplistic Keynesianism exhibited by newspaper hacks the world over, but I don't know of any genuine economists who would actually state such a thing. My suspicion is that the Boudreaux response would be: Well, you believe in the national accounts identity that yields AD, i.e. AD=C+I+G+NX, where NX is net exports, C is consumption, I is investment and G is government spending, and hence you must believe any type of G is useful in raising AD and hence GDP! We should even dig holes and bury banknotes, since paying people to do that will stimulate the economy!

Now of course, that could be done, and the amount of money in the economy would increase since people would be being paid to dig these holes. But the supply capacity of the economy would remain unchanged, and arguably would actually contract - since those folk might have done something productive instead of digging holes for the government.

The essential point is it would be the most blind and blinkered economist to assert that "it doesn’t matter" what is done to raise AD provided it is raised, just as it would be a crank doctor who did that. Yet, apparently, Boudreaux thinks he characterises Keynesian economists really well here.

Anybody who has any ounce of common sense would say that what the government spends its money on, if it engages in some counter-cyclical stimulus package on AD falling, matters: If it is digging holes then we're all in trouble. On the other hand, if it is investments which create the conditions for expanding investment and hence potentially consumption, then a stimulus package may well be successful.

However, again, the Hayekian in Boudreaux will say that it's impossible, absolutely impossible, that the government could possible think up any such investment that would actually be better than what the private sector could have done without the government intruding. That's mainly because Hayekians cannot fathom situations where the price mechanism in the market doesn't function properly, and hence where market outcomes are inefficient, and things can be done to improve the situation (the classic example being some form of Pigouvian tax/subsidy in the case of externalities). They do this mainly because they ignore the possibility of imperfect information in markets. However, I'm in danger of starting to mischaracterise Hayekian economists if I carry on much longer...

 

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Reagan: The Contrast

So this week, to commemorate 100 years since his birth, a statue of Ronald Reagan was unveiled in London.

I'm too young to have been around when he was President, but I'm intrigued by the perhaps predictable contrasting views on this from Liberal Conspiracy and Cranmer. It is, of course, easily explained. Those that decide he was not respected on these shores (and drag up memories - good ones! - of Spitting Image), ignore the many good things he must have done (heck, even the Guardian writer linked above, is positive about Reagan).

Yet those that venerate him (Cranmer - and I'm not sure what a "Christian" minister is doing venerating any fallen, sinful human being to the extent Cranmer does with anyone on the right of the political spectrum) ignore the bad things (see the cocaine related stuff to do with Nicaragua in the Liberal Conspiracy post.

I guess blogs that just take neutral and balanced views go unnoticed...?

Friday, July 1, 2011

Would Jesus Have Gone On Strike?

I should probably comment on here about the strikes of yesterday. That is, something likie 750,000 public sector workers going on strike about pension reforms.

I'm a product of our education system here, and certainly those that study economics at A-level I think come out with a rather odd internal inconsistency. They tend to be anti-market, but also anti-union, and from reading the essays of my students this year, I think that hasn't changed.

However, after pondering it, I am with the strikers. I've said it before, and I think it well and truly applies here: The Tories are remarkably good at propaganda. For all the criticism Labour got while in power for spin, the Tories really are the masters at this. They managed to convince the public that Britain was essentially becoming Greece and that austerity had to happen, and even as we lurch into a prolonged depression people still blame Labour for it (austerity, that is).

Why do I say this? Well, this little exchange between Evan Davis and Francis Maude. It shows the height of the Tory misinformation campaign - present the current system as unaffordable; have people go on the radio repeating this ad infinitum, and soon everyone will believe you. Certainly, everyone I've chatted with about this has presented this idea. But as Evan Davis points out, somewhat flippantly, is that this is not what the Hutton Report says, the report that the government is trying to use to justify the pension reforms. In fact, as things stand without reforms, the share of GDP going to public sector pensions will fall over time. How about that?!

Then on top of this, there's the fact that MPs also get pensions twice the size of teachers' pensions, and I think you can start to see why I'm supporting the strikers.

The only other argument I haven't addressed is the supposed "fairness" of public pensions vs private pensions. Comparisons abound about pay in the public and private sectors and almost all of them have a political angle, as Tim Harford pointed out on Radio 4 a week or so ago. How do you compare the different skill levels, different experience levels, plain different types of jobs in the two spheres? Are teachers really much better paid than their private equivalents (I doubt it), and if not, are they really that much worse than their private equivalents? Teachers tend to work investment banker style hours and get anything but an investment banker salary for much of their working lives. Why shouldn't they thus get a somewhat generous pension as a result of this? What is "fair" about cutting that pension, exactly? Don't we want to be attracting people into the teaching profession? The bottom line is that money talks and proposing to cut back an affordable-and-not-spectacularly-generous-relative-to-MPs pension system doesn't seem like the way to keep attracting people in...

Essentially, there's no pressing need to reform the pensions since they aren't unaffordable, and if there is a villain around, surely it's the self-interested politicians not interested in reforming their own system.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Once Again, Right Wingers Are Blinkered

It's hardly new that I make a post on what some right winger (often libertarian - perhaps I should stop attacking the easy extremes, but these guys blog a lot and I wouldn't want there to be no opposition to their prejudicial rantings and ravings) has said. I just read that David Henderson is convinced that healthcare spending is a Ponzi scheme. For those unaware, a Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent scheme that pays returns to investors not out of profits but out of the investments of others in the scheme - it's fraud.

It takes a remarkable, breathtaking amount of blinkeredness to talk about how healthcare is a Ponzi Scheme. To focus only on the contributions people must pay, and what they individually get out of it in the end. To what extent are insurers thus not engaging in Ponzi Schemes?

Moreover, it shows yet another example of a total disregard for the informational problems in healthcare markets. Libertarians and staunch right wingers usually try and get around this by saying that regardless of what the informational problems are, the market still provides best. But does it? Can legislation and regulation and maybe even public provision not help solve the kind of informational issues in healthcare?

Let's just recap. Are we, as customers, well informed about our own health, and what the possible healthcare options are to us, and how much we need them? Answer: No. If we all did 6+ years of medical training, maybe. But given we all have other things to be doing, then no. So in a nice free market (something libertarians are want to compare healthcare to), your doctor can command a fee from you (or your insurer) if he undertakes some procedure on you. You see your doctor every now and again, and realistically there's no way to know whether what he/she is giving you is needed, harmful, etc. It really doesn't take much insight to see there are chronic problems associated with healthcare due to informational problems. Furthermore, the cost of a mistaken "choice" (it's hardly a choice if we aren't informed) is ill health and possibly even death. It's not like after we find one bad producer we can just costlessly switch to another, like we would if we decided that the bad producer was dodgy (and thus set about sullying his or her reputation).

It just doesn't stack up, and only confirms what I've really began thinking recently. If you take extreme positions on either side of the spectrum, left or right, you have to become blinkered and prejudiced, twisting truth and ignoring many important considerations to substantiate your position.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Pro Manipulated Choice

I found this rant quite astonishing: It's some chap called Sunny Hundal, who clearly has little time for people who have any religious beliefs about them, and it relates to some propsed changes to how abortion is organised in the UK.

The change is quite simple: It puts a stop to the situation where the NHS only funds an abortion at a clinic if the abortion goes ahead. Reason being fairly obvious: It makes it in the interests of the abortion clinic to go ahead with abortions.

Yet this is met with huge volumes of vitriol by Hundal who apparently from his comments doesn't care what others think of him.

Regardless of one's views on abortion (and as a Christian, it's quite hard to be in support of them), I find the vitriol directed towards this by pro-choice (which is an odd monicker for them given the attitutes displayed here) towards anyone who might just happen to tinker with the system in a way that could possibly just about with a pinch of salt be described as pro life is incredible.

The fact is, the current system is pro manipulated choice. And by defending the system, and attacking in such a hostile way the proposed changes, it seems that these people reveal that they are not pro choice after all. Pro choice people would favour a system where people made informed decisions, and were not being given advice by people for whom the financial incentive was to get them to say yes. If this was happening in financial markets, it's likely these same people would be in uproar.

My stance on abortion is that I can't force others to do the things I think are right, nor should I. But I would like people making such a life changing decision to be as well informed as possible, and it is clear that the current system cannot do that if clinics only get paid if people actually go ahead with an abortion.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Shock horror: Leftists Don't Understand Rightists, and vice versa

I think it's quite a hilarious little piece this one, by David Henderson. I was thinking about blogging on David Henderson and libertarians more generally and their pure cynicism about everything related to the government and I probably still will - my feeling is the arrogance of the position of people like Henderson in their market fundamentalism is incompatible with Christianity which exhorts humility, and emphasises just how fallen the world is. Of course, likely they don't care that it's at odds with a Christ-like witness, but the point of this blog is to try and point out where right wingers are totally at odds with what the Bible tells us.

But back to the article at hand. In it, Henderson quotes a bit by Krugman about how right wingers (conservatives) are unable to actually describe things like a Keynesian, or left-wing position. The funny thing is of course, Henderson says how he thinks this isn't true, and asserts that actually the converse is true. Is this real? It's so schoolyard it's hilarious. It's talking past each other on steroids.

His test of the hypothesis is also quite amusing - read Krugman until you find where he miscategorises a right winger/conservative. That's not really a test of his hypothesis really, is it? There's no checking when right wingers and conservatives get Keynesianism completely and utterly wrong (those are of course ten a penny). It's not really a test at all.